Numerical Study and Sensitivity Analysis of Ebola Model with Multi-Intervention Strategies in a Heterogeneous Population

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Reuben Iortyer Gweryina
Anande Richard Kimbir
Terhemen Aboiyar

Abstract

We perform numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis on a mathematical model of Ebola transmission to determine the biological significance of key model parameters in relation to disease transmissions and prevalence. The indices from the forward sensitivity of  Reff affirm that average contacts and transmission rates championed the disease outbreaks. Similarly, a model with multi-intervention strategies has proved to effectively reduce the contact and prevalence of Ebola virus disease than the models with one intervention at a time. This suggests that strategies targeting contact reduction (such as education and isolation) and those that focus on recovery rates (such as prompt treatment of the infected persons) can be successful in curtailing the Ebola epidemic.

Keywords:
Numerical simulation, forward sensitivity index, Ebola virus disease, quarantine, education and treatment

Article Details

How to Cite
Gweryina, R., Kimbir, A., & Aboiyar, T. (2018). Numerical Study and Sensitivity Analysis of Ebola Model with Multi-Intervention Strategies in a Heterogeneous Population. Asian Research Journal of Mathematics, 10(3), 1-19. https://doi.org/10.9734/ARJOM/2018/43921
Section
Original Research Article