Mathematical Modelling of the Dynamics of COVID-19 Disease Transmission
A. B. Okrinya *
Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Niger Delta University, Wilberforce Island, Bayelsa State, Nigeria.
E. Esekhaigbe
Department of Mathematics, Rivers State University Port Harcourt, Nigeria.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
We construct a simple mathematical model that describes the dynamics of the transmission of COVID-19 disease in a human population. It accounts for the various phases of the disease and its mode of contact through infectious humans and surfaces. The contribution of asymptomatic humans in the dynamics of the disease is well represented. The model is a system of ordinary dierential equations that describes the evolution of humans in a range of COVID-19 states due to emergence of an index case. The analysis includes establishment of the basic reproduction number, R0, where, R0 < 1 signifies a disease free state that is locally asymptotically stable. A key result in this study shows some long term damped oscillatory behaviour that do not seem to end soon.
Keywords: COVID-19, modelling, symptomatic, asymptomatic, surface virus