A Mathematical Model Approach for Prevention and Intervention Measures of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Uganda

Fulgensia Kamugisha Mbabazi *

Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Education, Busitema University, Tororo, Uganda.

Yahaya Gavamukulya

Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Faculty of Health Sciences, Busitema University, Mbale, Uganda.

Awichi Richard Opaka

Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Kyambogo University, Uganda.

Peter Olupot-Olupot

Department of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Busitema University, Tororo, Uganda and Mbale Clinical Research Institute, Mbale, Uganda.

Samson Rwahwire

Department of Polymer, Textile and Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Busitema University, Tororo, Uganda.

Saphina Biira

Department of Physics, Faculty of Science and Education, Busitema University, Tororo, Uganda.

Livingstone S. Luboobi

Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Strathmore University, Nairobi, Kenya.

*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.


The human{infecting corona virus disease (COVID-19) caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was declared a global pandemic on March11th, 2020. Different countries adopted different interventions at different stages of the outbreak, with social distancing being the first option while lock down the preferred option for attening the curve at the peak of the pandemic. Lock down aimed at adherence to social distancing, preserve the health system and improve survival. We propose a Susceptible-Exposed- Infected-Expected recoveries (SEIR) mathematical model for the prevention and control of Covid-19 in Uganda. We analyze the model using available data to find the infection-free, endemic/infection steady states and the basic reproduction number. We computed the reproductive number and it worked out as R0 = 0:468. We note that R0 is less than unity, thus forecast that several strategies in combination (including travel restrictions, mass media awareness, community buy-in and medical health interventions) will eliminate the disease from the population. However, our model predicts a recurrence of the disease after one year and two months (430 days) thus the population has to be mindful and continuously practice the prevention and control measures. In addition, a sensitivity analysis done showed that the transmission rate and the rate at which persons acquire the virus, have a positive in uence on the basic reproduction number. On other hand the rate of evacuation by a rescue ambulance greatly reduces the reproduction number. The results have potential to inform the impact and effect of early strict interventions including lock down in resource limited settings and social distancing.

Keywords: COVID-19, SEIR model, Awareness, Infection rate, control measures

How to Cite

Mbabazi, F. K., Gavamukulya, Y., Opaka, A. R., Olupot-Olupot, P., Rwahwire, S., Biira, S., & Luboobi, L. S. (2022). A Mathematical Model Approach for Prevention and Intervention Measures of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Uganda. Asian Research Journal of Mathematics, 18(11), 233–248. https://doi.org/10.9734/arjom/2022/v18i11598


Download data is not yet available.


Singhal T. A review of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19). The Indian Journal of Pediatrics. 2020;87(4): 281-286.

Lai CC, Shih TP, Ko WC, Tang HJ, Hsueh PR. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS–CoV–2) and corona virus disease-2019 (COVID-19): the epidemic and the challenges. International journal of antimicrobial agents. 2020; 55(3):1-9.

COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic. Available from:https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

?zarsrc=130. Accessed on May 01st, 2020.

Africa CDC. COVID-19 daily updates. Available from: https://africacdc.org/covid-19/. Accessed on May 01st, 2020.

Alljazeera News/Health. Which countries have not reported any coronavirus cases? Available from: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/countries-reported-coronavirus- cases-200412093314762.html

Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) Preparedness and Response Plan Laboratory Manual. Available from: https://www.health.go.ug/cause/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19- preparedness-and-response-plan-laboratory-manual/. Accessed on April 01, 2020.

MoH Uganda: COVID-19 Information Portal Available at: https://covid19.gou.go.ug/. Accessed on: May 01st, 2020.

Ministry of health (MoH), Uganda. Guidelines on preventative measures against corona virus. Available from: https://www.health.go.ug/covid/. Accessed April 01, 2020.

Yang C, Wang J. A mathematical model for the novel coronavirus epidemic in Wuhan, China. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2020; 17(3):2708-2724.

Yang Z, Zeng Z, Wang K, Wong SS, Liang W, Zanin M, Liang J et al. Modified SEIR and AI prediction of the epidemics trend of COVID-19 in China under public health interventions. Journal of Thoracic Disease, 2020; 12(3):165-174.

Radulescu A, Cavanagh K. Management strategies in a SEIR model of COVID 19 community spread. Available from: arXiv preprint arXiv:2003.11150.

Fang Y, Nie Y, Penny M. Transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak and effectiveness of government interventions: A data-driven analysis. Journal of medical virology, 2020; 92: 645-659.

Rovetta A. Mathematical-Statistical Modeling of COVID-19 on the Restricted Population Mensana Srls research and disclosure division. 2020; Via Moro Aldo 5-25124 Brescia,Italy.

Tang B, Wang X, Li Q, Bragazzi NL, Tang S, Xiao Y, Wu J. Estimation of the transmission risk of the 2019-nCoV and its implication for public health interventions. Journal of Clinical Medicine. 2020; 9(2):1-13.

Zhu CC, Zhu J. Spread trend of COVID-19 epidemic outbreak in China: using exponential attractor method in a spatial heterogeneous SEIQR model. Journal of Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering. 2020; 17(4):3062-3087

Wan H, Cui JA, Yang GJ. Risk estimation and prediction by modeling the transmission of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in Mainland China excluding Hubei province. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.01.20029629.

Cao J, Jiang X, Zhao B. Mathematical Modeling and Epidemic Prediction of COVID-19 and its Significance to Epidemic Prevention and Control Measures. Journal of Biomedical Research & Innovation, 2020; 1(1):1-19.

Mbabazi FK. Projection of COVID-19 Pandemic in Uganda. Availabe from: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.02.20051086.

Uganda Population. Available from: https://www.worldometers.info/world- population/uganda-population/. accessed on April 18, 2020.

Nda¨ırou F, Area I, Nieto JJ, Torres D F. Mathematical Modeling of COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics with a Case Study of Wuhan. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2020; 135 (2020):1-6.

Huang C, Wang Y, Li X, Ren L, Zhao J, Hu Y, Cheng Z et al. Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China. The Lancet,2020; 395(10223):497-506.

Li Q, Guan X, Wu P, Wang X, Zhou L, Tong Y, Xing X et al. Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia. New England Journal of Medicine. 2020; 382(13) 1-7.

Chen H, Xu W, Paris C, Reeson A, Li X. Social distance and SARS memory: impact on the public awareness of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.11.20033688.

Diekmann O, Heesterbeek JAP, Roberts MG. The construction of next-generation matrices for compartmental epidemic models. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 2010; 7(47): 873-885.

Mbabazi FK, Gavamukulya Y, Awichi R, Olupot–Olupot P, Rwahwire S, Biira S, Luboobi LS. A mathematical model approach for prevention and intervention measures of the COVID–19 pandemic in Uganda. medRxiv. 2020 Jan 1.