Mathematical Modeling of COVID-19 Disease Dynamics Incorporating Quarantine and Vaccination
Rajat Kaushik
Regional Institute of Education, NCERT, Bhopal-462002, Madhya Pradesh, India.
Sachin Kumar
Department of Applied Mathematics, M. J. P. Rohilkhand University, Bareilly, Uttar Pradesh, India.
Manoj Kumar
Department of Applied Mathematics, M. J. P. Rohilkhand University, Bareilly, Uttar Pradesh, India.
Ram Keval *
Department of Applied Mathematics, M. J. P. Rohilkhand University, Bareilly, Uttar Pradesh, India.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
This article examines the dynamics of COVID-19 regarding transmission rates and loss of immunity, utilizing a system of ODEs that encompasses the impacts of quarantine and vaccination, including the incidence rate. Our methodology aims to understand the consequences of vaccination and quarantine through the utilization of the fundamental reproduction number (R0). The stability study indicates that if R0 < 1, the disease-free equilibrium points are locally and globally asymptotically stable, whereas the endemic point is stable for R0 > 1. Finally, we use Python software to draw some characteristics of the covid-19 virus and to identify the effective parameters for spreading this disease by sensitivity diagrams and the simulation results agree with our qualitative study.
Keywords: System of differential equations, basic reproduction number, stability theory, vaccination, quarantine